The 2008 presidential race has already proved to be historic. No, I’m not referring to the fact that this is the first year reformers in both parties have secured their parties’ nomination by defeating establishment-backed rivals. Nor am I referring to the nomination of an African American, as truly extraordinary as that is.
In the annals of Latino history, this is the first election in which the Latino vote proved decisive in the primaries of both political parties.
This is huge. Viva Kennedy emerged in 1960 only after John F. Kennedy had secured his party’s nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Los Angeles. And with the notable exception of Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, Latinos’ influence at the ballot box was largely felt in the general presidential campaigns.
A lot has changed since then, and the largest change is demographic. Hispanics now outnumber African Americans and are becoming an ever-greater force in politics.
The turning point for John McCain this year occurred in the Florida Republican primary. The endorsement of U.S. Senator Mel Martinez and the large block of Cuban American voters proved to be critical to his victory over a better-financed opponent.
Ironically, McCain’s Spanish-language ads were not posted on his official Web site, most likely out of concern about a backlash from conservatives who had spent years beating him up for sponsoring a compromise immigration reform bill.
In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton targeted the Latino community. Running as the inevitable winner, she secured the early backing of California assembly speaker Fabian Núñez and Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. (By way of disclosure, Villaraigosa wrote the foreword to my new book, The Search for a Civic Voice: California Latino Politics.)
The Núñez and Villaraigosa endorsements were widely perceived as a win-win proposition. Clinton needed support from the growing number of Latino voters, particularly in the Southwest. And early backers looked forward to having a friend in the White House, if not a role in the new administration.
Clinton gave Villaraigosa and Núñez titles in the campaign that helped raise their visibility. Moreover, the campaign used them as surrogates in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses, and in the New Hampshire primary. The press covered their travels, particularly on Spanish TV. This sent an important signal to Latino voters: this race is important.
Lopsided Latino support proved critical to Clinton’s victory in California and Texas, and in three states that are up for grabs in November: Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.
Now, as Obama and McCain duel in what will be a long general-election fight, millions of Latino voters are also up for grabs, and both sides have signaled that they will court the community. McCain has run a television ad emphasizing the role of Latinos in the military. The Obama campaign huddled with New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, former Denver mayor Federico Peña, and Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa as they began to chart their fall outreach strategy.
The candidates both need to reintroduce themselves.
McCain is better known but has a branding problem, both in terms of party and as leader. In many parts of the country Republicans are seen as anti-immigrant, if not anti-Latino. On a personal level, voters are wondering: Is McCain the solution-oriented moderate who has embraced immigration reform, or an increasingly ideological and opportunistic candidate who flip-flopped on immigration and the Bush tax cut—that primarily benefits the wealthy—in order to get elected?
McCain started his reintroduction by traveling to Columbia and to Mexico, where he met with President Calderon, and visited the shrine to Our Lady of Guadalupe.
By contrast, Obama is the beneficiary of a strong Democratic brand. But he needs to help fill in the picture for voters about who he is as a person and where he will lead the nation. Obama needs to spend more time with Hispanics—listening and learning. He needs to expand his organization to include Latino opinion leaders who were with Clinton in the primary. More importantly, he needs to fully utilize the Spanish-language media to reach millions of bilingual, often working-class voters.
Obama’s victory speech in St. Paul, Minn., was a good start. He talked about a future that includes African Americans, Latinos, and yes, poor whites in Appalachia. He followed this up by hiring Patti Solis Doyle, Clinton’s former campaign manager, who brings with her an expansive network of Hispanic movers and shakers.
Democrats do not have a lock on the Latino vote. Since Dwight D. Eisenhower, in the 1950s, Republicans have sought out Latino voters. President Eisenhower focused his efforts on small businessmen, veterans, and Protestants.
Richard M. Nixon and Ronald Reagan reached out to these groups and to alienated blue-collar voters who became known as “Reagan Democrats.” Once in office, both Nixon and Reagan appointed Latinos to their cabinets, a practice followed by George W. Bush.
Bush made history by appointing Alberto Gonzales to the post of attorney general. This made him the highest-ranking Latino cabinet member. Moreover, it was widely believed that Gonzales was in line to be first Supreme Court justice of Hispanic heritage. But he turned out to be an embarrassment. Sycophant for Bush, facilitator of torture, he was someone who just didn’t seem prepared for the job.
Gonzales’ tenure became a metaphor for a failed presidency. To make matters worse, the Republican’s anti-immigrant sentiment eroded support within their coalition. Millions of Latinos took to the streets in protest. The marchers included socially conservative Protestants and women and men who had voted for Bush, but who now felt that their community was under attack.
The outrage among Catholics was equally compelling. Cardinal Roger Mahony of Los Angeles sent shock waves through Bible-thumping Republicans in Washington, D.C., when he became the public face of resistance to the anti-immigrant bills.
One way for McCain to reach out to Latinos is to select Sen. Martinez as his running mate. This would help solidify Florida while demonstrating an interest in the Latino vote more broadly. As the former general chairman of the Republican National Committee, Martinez has establishment credentials.
The vice presidency is one of the biggest decisions the candidates will make prior to their respective party conclaves. The Democrats meet in Denver the last week of August, the Republicans in Minneapolis the first week of September.
Denver and Minneapolis/St. Paul both have old Spanish-speaking communities.
The Spanish settled Colorado, and their descendents blended with Anglo society and with newer arrivals from Mexico. Voters elected Edward P. Costigan to the U.S. Senate in 1930. “He won the solid support of debt-ridden farmers and unemployed workers, and the state’s Spanish-Americans, who found him attractive partly because he was only half Anglo,” according to a popular state history.
St. Paul, Minn., was the most northern point of the Texas-to-Chicago migration of Mexicans after the start of the Mexican Revolution. The old West Side neighborhood still exists today. The last time I was there I ate at the Boca Chica Restaurant. On the wall was a campaign photo of the proprietor’s mother presenting John F. Kennedy a sombrero, the symbol used by Mexican Americans in the 1960 campaign.
The bottom line is that the Latino community has a rich political history in the United States and is growing in terms of size, sophistication, and diversity. What matters for both the candidates is not only how Latinos divide their vote, but the size of the turnout on election day.
At the moment, the candidates and their parties have a lot of work to do.
______________ Kenneth C. Burt is the political director of the California Federation of Teachers. He is the author of The Search fo a Civic Voice California Latino Politics (Regina Books).
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